The
NG section are NAM & NGM FOUS guidance from Ohio State University's PA page.
The WWW is filled with abundant sources of weather information, but this can be a blessing or a curse. Though having so much information available is nice, only a small amount will likely interest you any particular time. In this article, I present a simple, compact menu which allows me to access the basic information I use for making a weather forecast very quickly and efficiently.
The menu is very simple and contains necessary information for a semi-experienced weather forecaster to forecast effectively using the WWW. No graphics or anything unnecessary are included (though some things can be added). Using this menu (or a similar one designed for your location of interest) requires familiarity with basic and some sophisticated meteorological products, but anyone interested about weather can probably use portions of it effectively. It was designed with a basic philosophy of emphasizing current data in mind. When I make a weather forecast, I tend to examine data in the following order:
Links are chosen for best possible view of weather likely to affect the Pocono Mountains region. Now a further description of the menu and reasoning for its construction.
SFC : PA-E PA NY NJ MD OH VA DE MI FSL DATA : TAM SUA LSC NWS
The SFC heading is for surface data. The first link is surface reports from the PA Department of Environmental Protection. Next, the most recent METAR (surface) observations are listed for nearby states from the College of DuPage site. The DATA heading is for various forms of data. I can't describe all of what's available, but you can get most meteorological text data & products at these sites - browse to see what's available.
RT : DIX BGM CCX PBZ DOX LWX BUF DIXA BGMA CCXA REG REGA NE NEA CUS CUSA NE RN : DIX BGM CCX PBZ DOX LWX BUF DIXA BGMA CCXA REG REGA NE NEA CUS CUSA NEA
Radar images. Links in the first heading (RT) are from WeatherTap, which requires a small subscription fee. Those in the next heading (RN) are from the the NWS. The first set of links for each (7) are base reflectivity radar images, the next set (3) are animations for radars nearest the Poconos, and the next set are regional and continental U.S. (CONUS) images and their animations. A regional image and animation from Unisys Weather are included at the end of those (NE & NEA). Though those from the NWS are free, I like some of the views WeatherTap provides, and it is always good to have an additional source. These sites have other types of images I occasionally use such as radial velocity and precipitation amount estimates not included as links here.
USI : NEV NEI CUW UCS: BWIV ALBV DTWV CUSV BWII ALBI DTWI CUSI CUSW USA : NEV NEI CUW HRVT NASA: GVIS GIR GWV UCAR: SAT MOD RAD SFC UA
Satellite images. The USI heading is for images, USA for animations - each for the same regions (NE & CONUS). Though because it fits better there, I include the high resolution visible image from WeatherTap (HRVT) with USA.
The first 3 links of each set are visible, infrared, and water vapor images and animations from Unisys. The UCS section are regional and CONUS images from UCAR. The NASA section are images from NASA's Earth Science Office. The UCAR section is links to specific pages of UCAR's site - those for satellite, radar, model, surface, and upper air data. These include more data than can be practically linked to. I tend to avoid satellite images with colorized backgrounds (as are at some other sites not used in the menu), because this sometimes can only be done with a loss of data - i.e., some shades are assumed as ground though are clouds (or vice versa).
SP : NE SE MW EC CUS BWI ALB DTW S-T : SL IPT BGM IAD BUF PIT WAL OKX ALB
The SP heading is for surface plots. The first set is regional & continental U.S. maps from Unisys, and then next regional views from UCAR. Charts from each site have their advantages. The Unisys ones provide a wider scale view, UCAR's a more narrow scale view but greater station density. When I want to see all data, I use the FSL link in the SFC section. As for many other links here, the root site of this - NOAA's Forecast Research Branch - has abundant information. The S-T heading is for skew-T, log P diagrams. SL is for the satellite derived soundings mentioned above, and included are links to those for IPT & BGM - nearest to the Poconos and most often upstream. The next 6 links are for balloon soundings.
SEA : SST OSD GLT UAU : 850 700 500 300 200 UAN : 850 700 500 500P 300 200
The SEA heading is for sea and lake surface data. SST shows nearby sea surface temperatures and other ocean features from the NOAA's Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution, OSD includes various sea surface charts and offshore data from coolwx.com, and GLT Great Lakes temperatures from NOAA's Coast Watch.
The headings UAU & UAN are for upper air charts from UCAR & the NWS Fax Charts site. A TIF viewer or plug-in is required for those. The 850 is an 850 mb chart, etc. The 500P is a polar stereographic Northern Hemisphere 500 mb chart - so the mid-tropospheric global wave patterns can be seen. These have the same basic information, but again an additional source is good.
NWS : NOW ZONE ST AFD-E AFD-C CLI-MPO WARN SWS NG : EFOU NFOU
NWS forecast, warning, and climate information. The first set of links is for the most commonly
used NWS text products - NOW, ZONE, & STATE forecasts, area forecast discussions from the offices
in Mount Holly, NJ (E for east PA) & State College, PA (C for central PA), the climatic summary
for MPO, then those goofy warnings & special weather statements The
NG section are NAM & NGM FOUS guidance from Ohio State University's PA page.
HPC : 12/0 12/6 24/0 24/6 36 48 MISC : NCEP READY R13N R13E WD LI PW
The HPC section links to NOAA'a Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Here I link to prognostic charts to 48 hours in advance, which indicate expected surface features such as Lows, fronts, and precipitation. The MISC heading is a miscellaneous mix of model forecasts, charts, and data. NCEP links to their model page. When new model forecasts are available, they'll be here before anywhere else (so much as I have seen). I primarily use the READY site for model soundings - can be very helpful for situations which are around the threshold for snow, sleet, and rain. The last 3 links are a weather depiction (only chart I know of which shows cloud ceiling), a lifted index, and a precipitable water chart.
NAM : SFC 0 SFC 6 SFC 12 SFC 18 SFC 24 SFC 30 SFC 36 SFC 42 SFC 48 SFC 54 SFC 60
RHL 0 RHL 6 RHL 12 RHL 18 RHL 24 RHL 30 RHL 36 RHL 42 RHL 48 RHL 54 RHL 60
PREC 850 0 850 6 850 12 850 18 850 24 850 30 850 36 850 42 850 48 850 54 850 60
SNOW 700 0 700 6 700 12 700 18 700 24 700 30 700 36 700 42 700 48 700 54 700 60
500 0 500 6 500 12 500 18 500 24 500 30 500 36 500 42 500 48 500 54 500 60
2AG 0 2AG 6 2AG 12 2AG 18 2AG 24 2AG 30 2AG 36 2AG 42 2AG 48 2AG 54 2AG 60
NGM : SFC 0 SFC 6 SFC 12 SFC 18 SFC 24 SFC 30 SFC 36 SFC 42 SFC 48
RHL 0 RHL 6 RHL 12 RHL 18 RHL 24 RHL 30 RHL 36 RHL 42 RHL 48
PREC 850 0 850 6 850 12 850 18 850 24 850 30 850 36 850 42 850 48
700 0 700 6 700 12 700 18 700 24 700 30 700 36 700 42 700 48
500 0 500 6 500 12 500 18 500 24 500 30 500 36 500 42 500 48
GFS : SFC 0 SFC 12 SFC 24 SFC 36 SFC 48 SFC 60 SFC 72 SFC 84 SFC 96 SFC 108 SFC 120
RHL 0 RHL 12 RHL 24 RHL 36 RHL 48 RHL 60 RHL 72 RHL 84 RHL 96 RHL 108 RHL 120
PREC 850 0 850 12 850 24 850 36 850 48 850 60 850 72 850 84 850 96 850 108 850 120
700 0 700 12 700 24 700 36 700 48 700 60 700 72 700 84 700 96 700 108 700 120
500 0 500 12 500 24 500 36 500 48 500 60 500 72 500 84 500 96 500 108 500 120
NAM, NGM, and GFS model forecasts for Surface, Relative Humidity, 850 mb, 700 mb, 500 mb, and 2 m above ground level from Unisys. Links are also included for total precipitation & snow (PREC, SNOW), though the last I was aware nothing more is done in the NAM than use a simple 10:1 snow:water ratio. Unisys provides an excellent explanation regarding use of these charts. When using those for NAM & NGM, please be aware that the SFC charts show 6-hour precipitation for hours 6, 18, 30, 42, & 54 but 12 hour values for hours 12, 24, 36, 48, & 60.
I normally don't the Unisys images to make forecasts - only for spot checks and such. When forecasting, I download successive model images to folders on my desktop using FlashGet and then animate them manually at the rate I wish using ACDSee. model.jcd is my most recent database file for model images using FlashGet. I use the medium-sized images from NCEP because they display best on my laptop PC. The small size are better for my desktop PC with its 17-inch monitor, and I have a different database file for that. Changing size for those maps is as simple as changing the last letter in their URL's (s, m, l). I actually use an old version of FlashGet (1.0) - it works fine and unlike some of the newer versions can move files which could not be downloaded back to the original directory (at least on my PC). Older versions are available here.
The NAM, GFS, & CMC charts provide the bulk of those I use for forecasting, though particularly in special situations the RUC is good.
REG 00 : 0 12 24 36 48 REG 12 : 0 12 24 36 48 GLB 00 : 0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 144 168 192 216 240 GLB 12 : 0 12 24 36 48 60 72 WYO : NAM RUC GFS NGM EC : 4P 3D 4D 5D 6D PTP 00 : 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 PTP 12 : 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
These are primarily Environment Canada spectral model forecasts. REG are those with the regional configuration and GLB with the global configuration, 00 for the 00 UTC run, 12 for the 12 UTC. The 168-240 hour charts are from meteocentre.com. PTP are detailed winter weather charts, which I find particularly good for precipitation type. Though large & small map versions are available for all time periods, I usually like the large ones. The only difference for links is the _50 for small charts & _100 for large ones in the URL. The WYO header is for model images from the University of Wyoming. A nice feature about these charts is that you can choose various parameters that are unavailable from other sites. For example, you can display 850 mb relative humidity for the possibility of low cloudiness even if the 850-500 mean relative humidity is rather low. EC are the 3-6 day ECMWF model forecasts from the Unisys site.
4PNAM : 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 4PNGM : 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 4PGFS : 0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 9P
4-panel charts of most of these same NAM, NGM, & GFS charts above. Though showing different parameters and less detail, this is good if you want to see the complete model run quicker. 9P is the 9-panel GFS from Unisys, providing little detail but a basic view of the forecast weather patterns.
GFSX1 : 0 ½ 1 1½ 2 2½ 3 3½ 4 4½ 5 5½ 6 6½ 7 7½ 8 8½ 9 9½ 10 GFSX4 : 0 ½ 1 1½ 2 2½ 3 3½ 4 4½ 5 5½ 6 6½ 7 7½ 8 8½ 9 9½ 10
GFS "extended" model forecasts from Unisys - single panel (GFSX1) & 4-panel (GFSX4). These provide more parameters and detail than the 9-panel chart, but require longer to download.
When forecasting weather, I use different links according to different situations. For most,
examining surface data (SFC) first is a good idea, to see current conditions. If precipitation
is a concern, I next examine the radar links (RT, RN - if in a hurry, perhaps first), and for
many situations the satellite (USI, USA) links. This provides a good 3-D impression of the
atmosphere, and how it may be changing. I examine the regional radar images and animations
to see larger scale precipitation movement and development, and local radar images and
animations for a detailed view (most often DIX & BGM, but perhaps CCX if echoes are moving
consistently from the W or DOX if northward). The 700 mb chart (or sometimes 500 mb) can
indicate precipitation movement also. 700 mb can often be thought of as a steering level
for precipitation cells, and vertical air motion there indicates cloud and precipitation
development. 500 mb can often be thought of as a steering level for storm systems, and
vorticity can be used to determine development - particularly its advection (thermal vorticity
advection can be better). Often I then look at the numerical guidance data to obtain objective
forecasts, free from influence of human opinion (other than the fact the we program the models
). I next view the relevant NWS info. During storms, the NOW
forecast is helpful. The ZONE forecast is often helpful for the near future, and warnings
(WARN) and special weather statements (SWS) should be heeded, and often contain local storm
information more useful than radar images. Next, I'll examine model forecast images. Because
so many are available, I may indeed use most of my time doing this. For NAM & GFS forecasts,
I most often examine surface, relative humidity, and 850 mb panels, focusing on time periods
which interest me and maintaining continuity. This gives a good idea of cloudiness and
precipitation expected, and development of surface Highs and Lows. The model forecasts
can often be compared with observed weather developments to make further forecast adjustments.
I can write much more regarding this - perhaps for another article. Some images have special
uses. 850 mb forecasts indicate temperature near lower parts of clouds during snowstorms,
helpful for determining precipitation type, though sometimes the atmosphere can be colder
than freezing at 850 mb, but warmer than freezing between that and 700 mb (or above).
So looking at the 700 mb forecast temperatures and (model) soundings may be very helpful.
Though I do not include 300 mb forecasts in the menu, they are available - simply replacing
the "500" with "300" in the appropriate links. Similar concepts often considered for 500 mb
analysis can be just as relevant and applicable as for 300 mb. The 2AG NAM & surface RUC
forecasts provide a "perfect prog" temperature forecast - which can be quite useful, though
often require adjustments for mountainous regions - especially for the NAM. The RUC is
supposed to be better with mesoscale effects, though microclimates must also be considered
for temperature.
Hopefully you can understand how this menu helps me to forecast weather effectively using
the WWW and the 10 topics for emphasis previously mentioned. The basic method described above
must be modified for specific situations, and data not included can be quite helpful also.
Thus, I use this menu as my browser Home link and bookmark other desired data the menu does
not include. I can usually use this menu and the techniques described to effectively make
a forecast in 20-30 minutes, because it is designed for maximum efficiency. Perhaps I can
suggest links for a similar menu for you, and you may certainly download & modify it for your
purposes.
Text is copyright of Joseph Bartlo, though may be used with proper crediting.